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Yield curve inversion = 2-year Treasury yield exceeds 10-year Treasury yield. Signal: recession within 12-24 months (preceded every US recession since 1955). Not an immediate sell signal -- S&P 500 averages +13% in the 12 months after inversion before the eventual decline.
Dollar strengthens → foreign earnings worth less in USD. Rule of thumb: every 1% rise in the DXY reduces S&P 500 aggregate EPS by 0.3–0.5% from translation effects alone. Companies with 50%+ international revenue hit hardest. Strong dollar benefits domestic US businesses and importers; hurts exporters.
FOMC meetings are 8 times per year. Markets drift up 0.5–1% in the 5 days before each meeting (pre-FOMC drift documented in academic literature). At 2 PM ET on decision day, a 30-second volatility spike occurs. The direction holds for 2–5 days after if the decision surprises. Don't fight the drift; size down into announcements.
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